Trump returned to Washington early on August 16, 2025, after his meeting with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia in Alaska resulted in no concrete concessions from the Russian President. Even though Trump vaguely indicated that some headway had been made in the direction of peace, he had nothing real to show for it.
Putin, on the other hand, said, “We’re convinced that in order to make the settlement lasting and long-term, we need to eliminate all of the primary causes of the conflict,” which is a reiteration of what has always been his position. So basically, nothing happened.
If Vladimir Putin thought Trump’s second term in the White House was going to be a god-sent gift, duly wrapped and delivered, he might be doing a serious rethink now. If not, he probably should because with every passing day, Trump is becoming increasingly intractable, which doesn’t work in Putin’s favour, given that the US is a major player in the Russia-Ukraine conflict apart from Europe.
The problem is, Europe has been consistent in its stand on the conflict, but Trump, the master of flip-flop, has been doing on the conflict the one thing he has been consistently great at — the flip-flop.
What’s more, his reckless statements on the issues of international concern, not to mention his everyday tweaking of tariffs, have engendered an atmosphere of routine uncertainty, which is worse than uncertainty because one can hardly tell between what’s serious and what’s just Trump blowing off steam, or Trump being Trump, if you will.
Trump goes around casually antagonizing the world for no good reason. Why would you talk of annexing Canada, a longstanding ally, and integrating it as the 51st State of the US, knowing fully well the impossibility of any such misadventure, militarily or otherwise? The only thing it did was infuriate the Canadians.
And then there is his stand on the Ukraine conflict. He badgered and insulted Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelensky, in the White House like no other foreign head of state has ever been, as far as anybody can readily recall, wrongly blaming him for starting the war. And ever since, he has been constantly criticizing Zelensky for not doing enough to get Russia to agree to a ceasefire.
The same goes for the Alaska Summit as well. In his oft-parodied ramble, Trump told Fox News, “Now, it’s really up to President Zelenskyy to get it done. And I would also say the European nations, they have to get involved a little bit. But it’s up to President Zelensky … And if they’d like, I’ll be at that next meeting.”
That’s dishing out blame without taking any. The fact remains that Trump’s strong-arm tactics have not borne fruit, and his much-trumpeted “friendship” with Putin has not delivered as much as Trump would like. Even at the recent Alaska Summit of August 2025, Trump did not fail to blow the bugle of his “fantastic relationship with President Putin. Vladimir.” The first name reference there at the end was to signal just how pally Trump was with his Russian counterpart. And yet, not deal. All we got from him was: “There’s no deal until there’s a deal.” Such a profound nugget of philosophical reflection that we could very well do without.
Trump is in the habit of making it all about himself. So it has to be his friendship, or what he said, or what he offered that draws an outcome. Be it the Indo-Pak military confrontation and subsequent ceasefire, or the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Trump would place his personal touch at the center of everything.
It’s never the US doing anything; it’s Trump’s carrot or stick, or both, working the scene. He is as quick to take credit as to assign blame, projecting himself as the doer of undoable things.
And that’s a real problem for a foreign head of state to navigate, for even if a positive outcome is achieved, Trump is likely to hog credit at the expense of everybody else. So, Putin did not offer a dilution of demands for a sustainable peace agreement, and ceasefires don’t work for lasting peace anyway.
Trump’s climbdown
Trump has been demanding an immediate ceasefire from Putin, whereas Putin has been insistent upon a comprehensive peace deal with Russia’s security concerns in respect of the expansion of NATO into its backyard duly addressed.
In a social media post immediately after the Alaska Summit, Trump wrote: “It was determined by all that the best way to end the horrific war between Russia and Ukraine is to go directly to a peace agreement, which would end the war, and not a mere ceasefire agreement, which often times do not hold up. President Zelenskyy will be coming to D.C., the Oval Office, on Monday afternoon. If all works out, we will then schedule a meeting with President Putin. Potentially, millions of people’s lives will be saved.”
Clearly, Trump has tempered his demand for an immediate ceasefire to a more Putin-palatable “‘peace agreement”. As for Putin, he is sticking to the fundamental objectives of his war on Ukraine.
It’s quite possible that Trump and Putin talked about a basic framework of the Peace Agreement acceptable to most parties, but there are areas where Zelensky may not see eye to eye with Putin’s demands. More accurately, the positions that Zelensky and Putin have taken are diametrically opposed to each other in respect of many significant areas.
Roadblocks to peace agreement
There is no ambiguity about what Russia wants. Russia wants Ukraine to be a neutral country with a guarantee of no NATO membership ever, and with Ukraine completely demilitarized of NATO troops.
Furthermore, Russia demands to keep the five oblasts it has annexed — Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson — with a formal recognition of them as Russian territory. And lastly, it wants all Western sanctions lifted.
Ukraine, on the other hand, is adamant on ceding no territory at all, regardless of battlefield losses. Besides, Europe is unlikely to be comfortable with recognizing a Russian victory because that means having a stronger Russian presence next door, thereby worsening its security situation, given that the NATO alliance has become less dependable under Trump’s constant trampling of it.
Reading Putin’s mind
Putin has so far not diverged from his objectives of the Ukraine war. And now, when he is not facing any battlefield setbacks, he is not likely to make big concessions.
He can just keep hammering Ukraine and annex more and more Ukrainian territory, the legitimacy of which may come later, or not come at all. But a lack of international recognition has done little for Crimea over so many years, with the Russian boot still on Crimea’s throat just as firmly as ever.
The talks between the US and Russia have opened a new era of dialogue between the two superpowers, which might help build a safer world in the long run, despite Trump’s idiosyncrasies. But as far as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the prospect of a peace agreement go, the talks may not be of immediate help for a variety of reasons.
How is Trump going to bring Europe and Ukraine on board with not only ceding annexed territory to Russia but also extending recognition to the annexation? And Russia is making territorial gains in Ukraine with every passing day. Why is Russia going to back off from a good position without the security guarantees for which it has spent three years fighting the war?
Also, if Russia goes back on any of its demands, Trump is certain to take a victory lap, announcing to the world the magic of his unparalleled leadership. And Putin, being the strongman he is, might not like it all that much unless he has some major concessions to show for it.
What Putin might consider
Putin’s idea of total victory in his war against Ukraine has taken too long and is going to take even longer at great cost to Russia, advances on the battlefield regardless. And even if Putin wins the war, it is unlikely that it would result in a complete subjugation of Ukraine, which is what he has set his eyes on.
Apart from that, Russia, having been engaged in a prolonged war with Ukraine, has been losing influence in the region it has traditionally exercised immense influence in.
For instance, apart from condemning the attack, Russia could do little about the US striking Iran’s nuclear sites. It could only be a mute spectator as Azerbaijan gained complete control of Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023.
And then in December 2024, rebel forces, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), overran Damascus and dislodged Bashar al-Assad, a long-term Russian ally, and Russia couldn’t do anything about it.
So, while Russia may have gained a dominant position in the Ukraine war after so many years, it has, of late, not been seen as a dependable ally or a formidable foe in the area where Russia has traditionally exercised immense influence. And that likely doesn’t sit well with Putin. For those reasons, Putin might settle for less than what he is currently bargaining for.
While Putin might be willing to scale down his demands a few notches, Trump would most likely push for more than Putin might be readily willing to concede. So, there is going to be a lot of back and forth before we have something approaching a peace agreement.
Originally published on The Political Prism, a publication on Medium.
